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Part Six of the Drought of US Droughts; June 2002

Historical and Recent Past Periodthat pile up each winter, in the
Drought Data is very valuable toun-seasonal winter rainfalls that drench
predicting future trends and cycles. Bythe mountains instead of snow, and in
doing this we can prepare for crisis bythe speed of the snowmelt during spring.
building adequate water resources andTotal precipitation over California
monitoring our fresh water supplies. Ithasn't changed significantly on average
is important to understand all theover the years, but seasonal variations
regional dynamics in order to make goodbetween rain and snow show that a
non-linear decisions to insure oursignificant warming trend is under way.
civilization has what it needs. ThisBut the population increase has, for
data is from 2002.If you think the US isinstance look at the LA suburbs,
having problems look at Mexico althoughSacramento, Central Valley of Silicon
they are getting some good and neededValley Refugees, San Diego and San
rain this week in the interior of theGabriel Valley, lots of lawns to water
country, it has been quite a problem.and mow. Even in the desert cities more
This Hurricane season has been lighterhomes, golf courses and lawns, with the
than anytime in the last 100 years andincreasing middle class, which is not
is not delivering the rain it could. Aspaying attention to where stuff like
the El Nino cuts of the amount of spacewater really comes from. The annual
that the hurricanes can operate in, itsurveys of mountain snow depths and
may create a few larger systems wherewater levels of California's major
tropical depressions combine. Therivers show that before the 1960s runoff
earth's supply of freshwater for use byin the late spring and early summer
humans and natural ecosystems seems toamounted to a good 40 percent of the
be shrinking by the year. One-third oftotal runoff each year.Since the
the world's population is living inmid-1970s in LA, San Diego, Sacramento
"water stressed" regions in the World.and the Bay Area, runoff during the late
As human population continues to grow,spring and early summer has dropped to
so does the demand for more water. It isbarely 30 percent of the annual total,
estimated that by the year 2025 nearlyhe said. Tracking California's changing
one-half of the population will beclimate record for many years. We are
living in "water stressed" regions orfinding data that adds to powerful
countries.The NASA Satellite which sendsevidence that the warming trend is real.
information on river basins around theHowever there maybe other explanations
world using sophisticated computeras well. Some which may be unbelievable.
models and geographical informationThe problem of managing the state's
systems is locating the areas that arewater resources more rationally in view
most stressed. Among the most stressedof the changing climate is urgent now.
are China's Yellow River basin, Africa'sWe need detailed studies to decide what
Zambeze River basin, the Syr Darya andto do. Studies are a lot cheaper than
Amu Darya River basins leading tofloods. However I doubt anyone can
Russia's Aral Sea and the Colorado Riverdisagree with the thought of weather
basin. These are amongst the firstcontrol research to solve the water
serious problems. This research is alsoproblem for people. Officials of the
being used by the World WaterCalifornia Department of Water Resources
Commission; a government and privatelyare starting to look at the effects of
funded organization; goal to seek globalclimate change as they develop the 2003
solutions to water problems. They ofCalifornia Water Plan that state law
course are using this data to changerequires the department to produce every
policy and over exaggerate much of thefive years. As I traveled last month
problems, however at the current ratesfrom Reno NV to CA Sacramento are I
we will see significant and unfixablelooked at the Sierra summit and there's
problems in these regions withoutno snow pack at all up there, while the
control of the actual weather. We mustmajor reservoirs downstream are full,
look towards using the technology weplaces like Folsom Lake, the warming
have to control the weather and make ittrend problem is just beginning, but
rain every Monday and Thursday night.it's certainly focusing the water
Water managers are recognizing that ourauthorities attention.The warming trend
nations water supply must be treatedposes at least three increasing dangers:
cautiously. With a growing population,-- Severe lowland flooding as rains in
erratic dry spells, and widespreadthe winter replace mountain snowfalls;
pollution of our aquatic environment,-- Rising sea levels that reach into the
water consumption must be watched. TheSacramento-San Joaquin River Delta and
big problem is that people still seethreaten century-old levees that must
water as basically free and totallyprotect the rich croplands; -- The
unlimited, which if you look at theintrusion of salt into Delta waterways
Earth it would appear that way judgingthat disturbs both fisheries and the
by the size of the oceans.Things arenatural delta ecology on which farmlands
being done to reserve our supply, in thedepend. The Department of Water
US we certainly take for granted theResources hedges against these changes
fresh water supply. Some communities areby developing a two-year state water
using surplus water and gray water toplan. I have read this and find it full
replenish underground reservoirs like inof farm subsidies and bad data and guess
Tucson AZ, where water naturallyby experts similar to the crisis
accumulates but is at lower than normalmanagement team brought in for Y2K,
levels. Scientists are looking at newwhich never happened, although these are
technologies to maximize such stores.real, right now issues we need to look
Other ideas range from setting upat the past for answers more than trying
commercial markets for water rights toto predict the new future trends. The
forming huge snow piles. Although theselast such document in 1998 included
ideas are great locally, and it providesforecasts for the state's water supply
local awareness it will do little good.and demand over the coming 20 years, and
And there are a couple of Canadianprovided recommendations for dam
companies that use small ships to go andbuilding, flood control, water
capture floating icebergs for freshmanagement and conservation measures.
water. California water planners face aNow, the department of water planning is
problem they never thought they'dgearing up to draft the plan for 2003.
encounter: global warming is hitting theThe City of Los Angeles water planning
High Sierra snow pack. And just how thedept and other and other experts will
planners cope with it could affect everyoffer the department's 60-member
city-dweller, every farmer and everyadvisory committee the latest evidence
water-using industry in the state forthat the warming problem could grow
years to come and every car wash.steadily worse.The Water Department has
Scientists are in broad agreement thata 60-member advisory committee made up
the world's climate is steadily warmingof "stakeholders" -- the people most
and even President Bush and his staffaffected by water policies like
have conceded that we should be lookingagricultural water districts, urban
at these issues with more scrutiny--water departments, food processing
whether due to "greenhouse gas"industries and public utilities. All
emissions from industry andprovide input for the state's water
automobilesor to natural variability. isplanners. The committee meets every two
evidence that it is already altering themonths or so for the next two years
annual ebb and flow of the Californiauntil the final plan is released. future
state's water supplies, of coursewill be all about sustainability and we
realizing that liars figure and figuresmust watch that this term is not misused
lie. It's a matter of "more rain, lessin the future for political gain or
snow," and this is El Nino which willLiberal Political gain, which will upset
fill up CA reservoirs when they do notthe balance. Wash guys realize the need
need the water and the snow pack thatto understand the water supply and where
comes and fills things up in the Springand why it is needed. We have been
will not come, then La Nina comes and wethrough droughts in the past and will in
have another drought in CA, it is notthe future. Some people ask where did
going to help us. This happened in 1984the Indians go who inhabited they
too. California's water supply largelyvillages and cities and temple and
depends on the winter snow pack in thestructures of the past? I believe they
high mountains that must feed thewent in search of greener pastures and
state's lowlands the rest of the year. Awater. The problem of tomorrow is
major change is already evident in thedistribution flow.
decreasing depths of the mountain snows



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