The Housing Bubble in 2006: Part I - Is it Boom or Bust?

Low interest rates and relatively easy access tomarket is $123,000 and has appreciated approximately
mortgage money are just two factors that have30% over the past three years.
caused a boom in residential real estate prices overSanta Ana - What has continued to be a red hot
the past few years. This phenomena has caused amarket now has a "greater than 50% chance of
number of analysts to ask whether a national "housingexperiencing price declines," according to the PMI U.S.
bubble" now exists and how its potential collapse couldMarket Risk Index. The reported median house price is
effect the economy. This is a complicated subject that$710,000 with an appreciation factor over the past
is influenced by both national and regional issues.year of 10.4%.
Over the next several columns, we'll look at many ofSan Francisco - The National City Corp study found
these issues and see if we can weave our waythat San Francisco was 30% overvalued. National real
though the maze of possibilities that could impact theestate firm Caldwell Banker recently estimated that a
outcome of this concern.2,200 square foot house with 4 bedrooms, 2½
Let's begin with a regional overview and rememberbathrooms, a family room and a two car garage in a
the words of Tip O'Neill, the venerable Congressman"middle-management" neighborhood would sell for
from Massachusetts who was fond of saying, "Allapproximately $1,300,000. There are some signs of the
politics are local." The same principle could be said ofmarket cooling. In a 11/1/05 USA article, Judi Keenholtz,
housing, at least according to a commonly used ratioCEO of Empire Realty reported that "desirable homes
comparing mean house prices to mean family incomein good school districts that used to fetch eight to ten
on a local basis.bids now get three to four."
Using U.S. Census Bureau's numbers from 2003 andGiven the above examples, we can begin to see
looking at various cities across the country, we canpricing differences of housing throughout the country
immediately see how varied pricing is throughout theand therefore how difficult it is to predict a national
United States when the ratio is applied. On the low endtrend.
are cities like Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania with a ratio ofOf course a single ratio like "family income: house
1.47 and Corpus Christi, Texas with a ratio of 1.58. Onprice" is only one indicator and can't provide conclusive
the other end of the scale are Santa Ana, Californiaproof of a trend one way or another. Other pieces
and San Francisco coming in at 8.95 and 8.81must be brought into play if we can gain a true
respectively. The average ratio for the entire countryoverview.
is 3.59.In our next column we'll look at the ratio of "home price
Here are some excerpts from recent studies on theseto rent" to get a different perspective and try to
cities:answer whether fans of the 49ers could retire with
Pittsburgh - On December 18, 2005, the "Pittsburghnewfound wealth and happiness in the land of the
Tribune-Review" sited a study that showed "housingSteelers.
prices in the Pittsburgh region appear to be right whereStay Tuned.
they should be, and importantly, they are notGlenn ("Chip") Dahlke, a senior contributor to the Living
overvalued as are houses in some other areas of theTrust Network, has 28 years in the investment
country." According to the National Association ofbusiness.
Realtors, the Median Home Price in the first quarter ofHe is a Registered Representative of Linsco/Private
2005 was $106,400. This was a 6.6% increase fromLedger and a principal with Dahlke Financial Group. He
the first quarter of 2004 when the median price wasis licensed to transact securities with persons who are
$99,800.residents of the following states: CA. CT, FL, GA, IL.
Corpus Christi - Third quarter 2005 results from aMA, MD. ME, MI. NC, NH, NJ, NY.OR, PA, RI, VA, VT,
Housing Market Analysis prepared by National CityWY.
Corp found that Corpus Christi was still -8%If you have any questions or comments, Chip would
undervalued when compared with other cities acrosslove to hear from you. You may contact him at . You
the United States. The study done by the Nationalmay also contact him at the Living Trust Network. It's
Association of Realtors found "the local housingweb site is
market is in excellent shape with a potential forCopyright 2006. Living Trust Network, LLC. All Rights
significant equity gains." The median house price in theReserved.