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The Housing Bubble in 2006: Part I - Is it Boom or Bust?

Low interest rates and relatively easy accessappreciated approximately 30% over the past
to mortgage money are just two factors thatthree  years.
have caused a boom in residential real estate
prices over the past few years. ThisSanta Ana - What has continued to be a red
phenomena has caused a number of analysts tohot market now has a "greater than 50% chance
ask whether a national "housing bubble" nowof experiencing price declines," according to
exists and how its potential collapse couldthe PMI U.S. Market Risk Index. The reported
effect the economy. This is a complicatedmedian house price is $710,000 with an
subject that is influenced by both nationalappreciation factor over the past year of
and  regional  issues.10.4%.
Over the next several columns, we'll look atSan Francisco - The National City Corp study
many of these issues and see if we can weavefound that San Francisco was 30% overvalued.
our way though the maze of possibilities thatNational real estate firm Caldwell Banker
could  impact  the  outcome  of this concern.recently estimated that a 2,200 square foot
house with 4 bedrooms, 2½ bathrooms, a
Let's begin with a regional overview andfamily room and a two car garage in a
remember the words of Tip O'Neill, the"middle-management" neighborhood would sell
venerable Congressman from Massachusetts whofor approximately $1,300,000. There are some
was fond of saying, "All politics are local."signs of the market cooling. In a 11/1/05 USA
The same principle could be said of housing,article, Judi Keenholtz, CEO of Empire Realty
at least according to a commonly used ratioreported that "desirable homes in good school
comparing mean house prices to mean familydistricts that used to fetch eight to ten
income  on  a  local  basis.bids  now  get  three  to  four."
Using U.S. Census Bureau's numbers from 2003Given the above examples, we can begin to see
and looking at various cities across thepricing differences of housing throughout the
country, we can immediately see how variedcountry and therefore how difficult it is to
pricing is throughout the United States whenpredict  a  national  trend.
the ratio is applied. On the low end are
cities like Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania with aOf course a single ratio like "family income:
ratio of 1.47 and Corpus Christi, Texas withhouse price" is only one indicator and can't
a ratio of 1.58. On the other end of theprovide conclusive proof of a trend one way
scale are Santa Ana, California and Sanor another. Other pieces must be brought into
Francisco coming in at 8.95 and 8.81play  if  we  can  gain  a  true  overview.
respectively. The average ratio for the
entire  country  is  3.59.In our next column we'll look at the ratio of
"home price to rent" to get a different
Here are some excerpts from recent studies onperspective and try to answer whether fans of
these  cities:the 49ers could retire with newfound wealth
and  happiness  in  the land of the Steelers.
Pittsburgh - On December 18, 2005, the
"Pittsburgh Tribune-Review" sited a studyStay  Tuned.
that showed "housing prices in the Pittsburgh
region appear to be right where they shouldGlenn ("Chip") Dahlke, a senior contributor
be, and importantly, they are not overvaluedto the Living Trust Network, has 28 years in
as are houses in some other areas of thethe  investment  business.
country." According to the National
Association of Realtors, the Median HomeHe is a Registered Representative of Linsco
Price in the first quarter of 2005 wasPrivate Ledger and a principal with Dahlke
$106,400. This was a 6.6% increase from theFinancial Group. He is licensed to transact
first quarter of 2004 when the median pricesecurities with persons who are residents of
was  $99,800.the following states: CA. CT, FL, GA, IL. MA,
MD. ME, MI. NC, NH, NJ, NY.OR, PA, RI, VA,
Corpus Christi - Third quarter 2005 resultsVT,  WY.
from a Housing Market Analysis prepared by
National City Corp found that Corpus ChristiIf you have any questions or comments, Chip
was still -8% undervalued when compared withwould love to hear from you. You may contact
other cities across the United States. Thehim at . You may also contact him at the
study done by the National Association ofLiving  Trust  Network.  It's  web  site  is
Realtors found "the local housing market is
in excellent shape with a potential forCopyright 2006. Living Trust Network, LLC.
significant equity gains." The median houseAll Rights Reserved.
price in the market is $123,000 and has



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