| Historical and Recent Past Period Drought Data is | | | | decreasing depths of the mountain snows that pile up |
| very valuable to predicting future trends and cycles. By | | | | each winter, in the un-seasonal winter rainfalls that |
| doing this we can prepare for crisis by building | | | | drench the mountains instead of snow, and in the |
| adequate water resources and monitoring our fresh | | | | speed of the snowmelt during spring. Total precipitation |
| water supplies. It is important to understand all the | | | | over California hasn't changed significantly on average |
| regional dynamics in order to make good non-linear | | | | over the years, but seasonal variations between rain |
| decisions to insure our civilization has what it needs. | | | | and snow show that a significant warming trend is |
| This data is from 2002.If you think the US is having | | | | under way. But the population increase has, for |
| problems look at Mexico although they are getting | | | | instance look at the LA suburbs, Sacramento, Central |
| some good and needed rain this week in the interior of | | | | Valley of Silicon Valley Refugees, San Diego and San |
| the country, it has been quite a problem. This Hurricane | | | | Gabriel Valley, lots of lawns to water and mow. Even |
| season has been lighter than anytime in the last 100 | | | | in the desert cities more homes, golf courses and |
| years and is not delivering the rain it could. As the El | | | | lawns, with the increasing middle class, which is not |
| Nino cuts of the amount of space that the hurricanes | | | | paying attention to where stuff like water really comes |
| can operate in, it may create a few larger systems | | | | from. The annual surveys of mountain snow depths |
| where tropical depressions combine. The earth's | | | | and water levels of California's major rivers show that |
| supply of freshwater for use by humans and natural | | | | before the 1960s runoff in the late spring and early |
| ecosystems seems to be shrinking by the year. | | | | summer amounted to a good 40 percent of the total |
| One-third of the world's population is living in "water | | | | runoff each year.Since the mid-1970s in LA, San Diego, |
| stressed" regions in the World. As human population | | | | Sacramento and the Bay Area, runoff during the late |
| continues to grow, so does the demand for more | | | | spring and early summer has dropped to barely 30 |
| water. It is estimated that by the year 2025 nearly | | | | percent of the annual total, he said. Tracking California's |
| one-half of the population will be living in "water | | | | changing climate record for many years. We are |
| stressed" regions or countries.The NASA Satellite | | | | finding data that adds to powerful evidence that the |
| which sends information on river basins around the | | | | warming trend is real. However there maybe other |
| world using sophisticated computer models and | | | | explanations as well. Some which may be unbelievable. |
| geographical information systems is locating the areas | | | | The problem of managing the state's water resources |
| that are most stressed. Among the most stressed are | | | | more rationally in view of the changing climate is urgent |
| China's Yellow River basin, Africa's Zambeze River | | | | now. We need detailed studies to decide what to do. |
| basin, the Syr Darya and Amu Darya River basins | | | | Studies are a lot cheaper than floods. However I doubt |
| leading to Russia's Aral Sea and the Colorado River | | | | anyone can disagree with the thought of weather |
| basin. These are amongst the first serious problems. | | | | control research to solve the water problem for |
| This research is also being used by the World Water | | | | people. Officials of the California Department of Water |
| Commission; a government and privately funded | | | | Resources are starting to look at the effects of |
| organization; goal to seek global solutions to water | | | | climate change as they develop the 2003 California |
| problems. They of course are using this data to | | | | Water Plan that state law requires the department to |
| change policy and over exaggerate much of the | | | | produce every five years. As I traveled last month |
| problems, however at the current rates we will see | | | | from Reno NV to CA Sacramento are I looked at the |
| significant and unfixable problems in these regions | | | | Sierra summit and there's no snow pack at all up there, |
| without control of the actual weather. We must look | | | | while the major reservoirs downstream are full, places |
| towards using the technology we have to control the | | | | like Folsom Lake, the warming trend problem is just |
| weather and make it rain every Monday and | | | | beginning, but it's certainly focusing the water |
| Thursday night. Water managers are recognizing that | | | | authorities attention.The warming trend poses at least |
| our nations water supply must be treated cautiously. | | | | three increasing dangers: -- Severe lowland flooding as |
| With a growing population, erratic dry spells, and | | | | rains in the winter replace mountain snowfalls; -- Rising |
| widespread pollution of our aquatic environment, water | | | | sea levels that reach into the Sacramento-San Joaquin |
| consumption must be watched. The big problem is that | | | | River Delta and threaten century-old levees that must |
| people still see water as basically free and totally | | | | protect the rich croplands; -- The intrusion of salt into |
| unlimited, which if you look at the Earth it would appear | | | | Delta waterways that disturbs both fisheries and the |
| that way judging by the size of the oceans.Things are | | | | natural delta ecology on which farmlands depend. The |
| being done to reserve our supply, in the US we | | | | Department of Water Resources hedges against |
| certainly take for granted the fresh water supply. | | | | these changes by developing a two-year state water |
| Some communities are using surplus water and gray | | | | plan. I have read this and find it full of farm subsidies |
| water to replenish underground reservoirs like in | | | | and bad data and guess by experts similar to the crisis |
| Tucson AZ, where water naturally accumulates but is | | | | management team brought in for Y2K, which never |
| at lower than normal levels. Scientists are looking at | | | | happened, although these are real, right now issues we |
| new technologies to maximize such stores. Other | | | | need to look at the past for answers more than trying |
| ideas range from setting up commercial markets for | | | | to predict the new future trends. The last such |
| water rights to forming huge snow piles. Although | | | | document in 1998 included forecasts for the state's |
| these ideas are great locally, and it provides local | | | | water supply and demand over the coming 20 years, |
| awareness it will do little good. And there are a couple | | | | and provided recommendations for dam building, flood |
| of Canadian companies that use small ships to go and | | | | control, water management and conservation |
| capture floating icebergs for fresh water. California | | | | measures. Now, the department of water planning is |
| water planners face a problem they never thought | | | | gearing up to draft the plan for 2003. The City of Los |
| they'd encounter: global warming is hitting the High | | | | Angeles water planning dept and other and other |
| Sierra snow pack. And just how the planners cope | | | | experts will offer the department's 60-member |
| with it could affect every city-dweller, every farmer | | | | advisory committee the latest evidence that the |
| and every water-using industry in the state for years | | | | warming problem could grow steadily worse.The |
| to come and every car wash. Scientists are in broad | | | | Water Department has a 60-member advisory |
| agreement that the world's climate is steadily warming | | | | committee made up of "stakeholders" -- the people |
| and even President Bush and his staff have conceded | | | | most affected by water policies like agricultural water |
| that we should be looking at these issues with more | | | | districts, urban water departments, food processing |
| scrutiny-- whether due to "greenhouse gas" emissions | | | | industries and public utilities. All provide input for the |
| from industry and automobilesor to natural variability. is | | | | state's water planners. The committee meets every |
| evidence that it is already altering the annual ebb and | | | | two months or so for the next two years until the final |
| flow of the California state's water supplies, of course | | | | plan is released. future will be all about sustainability and |
| realizing that liars figure and figures lie. It's a matter of | | | | we must watch that this term is not misused in the |
| "more rain, less snow," and this is El Nino which will fill | | | | future for political gain or Liberal Political gain, which will |
| up CA reservoirs when they do not need the water | | | | upset the balance. Wash guys realize the need to |
| and the snow pack that comes and fills things up in the | | | | understand the water supply and where and why it is |
| Spring will not come, then La Nina comes and we | | | | needed. We have been through droughts in the past |
| have another drought in CA, it is not going to help us. | | | | and will in the future. Some people ask where did the |
| This happened in 1984 too. California's water supply | | | | Indians go who inhabited they villages and cities and |
| largely depends on the winter snow pack in the high | | | | temple and structures of the past? I believe they went |
| mountains that must feed the state's lowlands the rest | | | | in search of greener pastures and water. The problem |
| of the year. A major change is already evident in the | | | | of tomorrow is distribution flow. |