Part Six of the Drought of US Droughts; June 2002

Historical and Recent Past Period Drought Data isdecreasing depths of the mountain snows that pile up
very valuable to predicting future trends and cycles. Byeach winter, in the un-seasonal winter rainfalls that
doing this we can prepare for crisis by buildingdrench the mountains instead of snow, and in the
adequate water resources and monitoring our freshspeed of the snowmelt during spring. Total precipitation
water supplies. It is important to understand all theover California hasn't changed significantly on average
regional dynamics in order to make good non-linearover the years, but seasonal variations between rain
decisions to insure our civilization has what it needs.and snow show that a significant warming trend is
This data is from 2002.If you think the US is havingunder way. But the population increase has, for
problems look at Mexico although they are gettinginstance look at the LA suburbs, Sacramento, Central
some good and needed rain this week in the interior ofValley of Silicon Valley Refugees, San Diego and San
the country, it has been quite a problem. This HurricaneGabriel Valley, lots of lawns to water and mow. Even
season has been lighter than anytime in the last 100in the desert cities more homes, golf courses and
years and is not delivering the rain it could. As the Ellawns, with the increasing middle class, which is not
Nino cuts of the amount of space that the hurricanespaying attention to where stuff like water really comes
can operate in, it may create a few larger systemsfrom. The annual surveys of mountain snow depths
where tropical depressions combine. The earth'sand water levels of California's major rivers show that
supply of freshwater for use by humans and naturalbefore the 1960s runoff in the late spring and early
ecosystems seems to be shrinking by the year.summer amounted to a good 40 percent of the total
One-third of the world's population is living in "waterrunoff each year.Since the mid-1970s in LA, San Diego,
stressed" regions in the World. As human populationSacramento and the Bay Area, runoff during the late
continues to grow, so does the demand for morespring and early summer has dropped to barely 30
water. It is estimated that by the year 2025 nearlypercent of the annual total, he said. Tracking California's
one-half of the population will be living in "waterchanging climate record for many years. We are
stressed" regions or countries.The NASA Satellitefinding data that adds to powerful evidence that the
which sends information on river basins around thewarming trend is real. However there maybe other
world using sophisticated computer models andexplanations as well. Some which may be unbelievable.
geographical information systems is locating the areasThe problem of managing the state's water resources
that are most stressed. Among the most stressed aremore rationally in view of the changing climate is urgent
China's Yellow River basin, Africa's Zambeze Rivernow. We need detailed studies to decide what to do.
basin, the Syr Darya and Amu Darya River basinsStudies are a lot cheaper than floods. However I doubt
leading to Russia's Aral Sea and the Colorado Riveranyone can disagree with the thought of weather
basin. These are amongst the first serious problems.control research to solve the water problem for
This research is also being used by the World Waterpeople. Officials of the California Department of Water
Commission; a government and privately fundedResources are starting to look at the effects of
organization; goal to seek global solutions to waterclimate change as they develop the 2003 California
problems. They of course are using this data toWater Plan that state law requires the department to
change policy and over exaggerate much of theproduce every five years. As I traveled last month
problems, however at the current rates we will seefrom Reno NV to CA Sacramento are I looked at the
significant and unfixable problems in these regionsSierra summit and there's no snow pack at all up there,
without control of the actual weather. We must lookwhile the major reservoirs downstream are full, places
towards using the technology we have to control thelike Folsom Lake, the warming trend problem is just
weather and make it rain every Monday andbeginning, but it's certainly focusing the water
Thursday night. Water managers are recognizing thatauthorities attention.The warming trend poses at least
our nations water supply must be treated cautiously.three increasing dangers: -- Severe lowland flooding as
With a growing population, erratic dry spells, andrains in the winter replace mountain snowfalls; -- Rising
widespread pollution of our aquatic environment, watersea levels that reach into the Sacramento-San Joaquin
consumption must be watched. The big problem is thatRiver Delta and threaten century-old levees that must
people still see water as basically free and totallyprotect the rich croplands; -- The intrusion of salt into
unlimited, which if you look at the Earth it would appearDelta waterways that disturbs both fisheries and the
that way judging by the size of the oceans.Things arenatural delta ecology on which farmlands depend. The
being done to reserve our supply, in the US weDepartment of Water Resources hedges against
certainly take for granted the fresh water supply.these changes by developing a two-year state water
Some communities are using surplus water and grayplan. I have read this and find it full of farm subsidies
water to replenish underground reservoirs like inand bad data and guess by experts similar to the crisis
Tucson AZ, where water naturally accumulates but ismanagement team brought in for Y2K, which never
at lower than normal levels. Scientists are looking athappened, although these are real, right now issues we
new technologies to maximize such stores. Otherneed to look at the past for answers more than trying
ideas range from setting up commercial markets forto predict the new future trends. The last such
water rights to forming huge snow piles. Althoughdocument in 1998 included forecasts for the state's
these ideas are great locally, and it provides localwater supply and demand over the coming 20 years,
awareness it will do little good. And there are a coupleand provided recommendations for dam building, flood
of Canadian companies that use small ships to go andcontrol, water management and conservation
capture floating icebergs for fresh water. Californiameasures. Now, the department of water planning is
water planners face a problem they never thoughtgearing up to draft the plan for 2003. The City of Los
they'd encounter: global warming is hitting the HighAngeles water planning dept and other and other
Sierra snow pack. And just how the planners copeexperts will offer the department's 60-member
with it could affect every city-dweller, every farmeradvisory committee the latest evidence that the
and every water-using industry in the state for yearswarming problem could grow steadily worse.The
to come and every car wash. Scientists are in broadWater Department has a 60-member advisory
agreement that the world's climate is steadily warmingcommittee made up of "stakeholders" -- the people
and even President Bush and his staff have concededmost affected by water policies like agricultural water
that we should be looking at these issues with moredistricts, urban water departments, food processing
scrutiny-- whether due to "greenhouse gas" emissionsindustries and public utilities. All provide input for the
from industry and automobilesor to natural variability. isstate's water planners. The committee meets every
evidence that it is already altering the annual ebb andtwo months or so for the next two years until the final
flow of the California state's water supplies, of courseplan is released. future will be all about sustainability and
realizing that liars figure and figures lie. It's a matter ofwe must watch that this term is not misused in the
"more rain, less snow," and this is El Nino which will fillfuture for political gain or Liberal Political gain, which will
up CA reservoirs when they do not need the waterupset the balance. Wash guys realize the need to
and the snow pack that comes and fills things up in theunderstand the water supply and where and why it is
Spring will not come, then La Nina comes and weneeded. We have been through droughts in the past
have another drought in CA, it is not going to help us.and will in the future. Some people ask where did the
This happened in 1984 too. California's water supplyIndians go who inhabited they villages and cities and
largely depends on the winter snow pack in the hightemple and structures of the past? I believe they went
mountains that must feed the state's lowlands the restin search of greener pastures and water. The problem
of the year. A major change is already evident in theof tomorrow is distribution flow.